The Arctic sea ice extent has been a roller coaster this year.

Normally it's pretty predictable - the ice begins to melt during the spring months, accelerates during the summer, slows toward the end of summer, begins recovering around October, then steadily increases in extent from November thru January.

This year there was a rapid acceleration in the melt during the summer.  At first it seemed as though the ice extent wouldn't decrease as much as in 2007, but after a big acceleration almost got there (and did break the record in terms of volume).  Then there was a fairly rapid recovery in October, and some of the deniers were predicting Arctic ice extent would return to 1979-2000 average levels (some even predicting it would recover to 1979 levels).

Well, as I predicted, Arctic sea ice didn't even come close to recovering to that level.  Not only that, but suddenly the recovery has essentially ceased, and suddenly the extent is below the 2007 record low.

Granted it's only maybe 2 weeks of flatlining, but it's extremely strange to see the Arctic sea ice recovery stop in December, of all months.

Anyone have any ideas what's going on?

blimey, what happened?!! i only looked last week, saw a little flat bit, but now its all going  wrong! and at  winter solstice, total darkness. it can only be the water temperature doing that. so this is the amplification they are on about, over and above the atmospheric warming.

 it makes you want to question the data, it looks so scarily wrong.

where do nsidc keep their previous years daily charts? i couldnt find them last time i looked. we dont actually know from comparing it to the average and to one other year how much it might wobble in general, last year might have been unusually steady.

Edited by gerda - Tue, 23 Dec 2008 17:26:01 GMT

Edited by gerda - Tue, 23 Dec 2008 17:27:58 GMT

no comment at nsidc yet i guess they are waiting to see what happens too.

Well I wouldn't jump to any conclusions just yet because it's still a short-term effect (just 1-2 weeks), but it is a very strange one.  Definitely something to keep an eye on.  I hadn't been, but pegminer pointed it out to me.

All that cold air blanketing the N. American continent came from the arctic.  Conservation of mass dictates air has to come from somewhere else to take its place.  The air coming in was warmer, keeping ice from forming.  Maybe.

Maybe.  We'll have to keep an eye on Arctic ice and North American temps over the next couple weeks.

Update - the Arctic sea ice extent has begun to expand again, pretty much right after I started this discussion.  So it's almost exactly in line with the 2007 (record low) levels at this point.  But at least it's no longer flatlining.

maybe there's a link with the recent cold weather across north america and china? we have had mild weather in uk for 3 weeks until 2 nights ago.

I'll be one of the first to point out the difference between weather and climate. But, I find this just a bit too disconcerting to simply brush it off when you look at its location in the high arctic of northern Greenland.  I know it's weather but are we looking a global warming extreme weather event?  Thoughts?

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/BGTL.html

Latitude: 76° 31'

Longitude: 68° 45'

I'm looking for a surface isothermic chart for this region for today. It would prove interesting but I doubt one exists.

Edited by gwens - Fri, 2 Jan 2009 21:48:46 UTC

Edited by gwens - Fri, 2 Jan 2009 21:58:48 UTC

isnt that a bit warm for the time of year? thule is well inside the actic circle innit?

edit; sorry gwens, you just said that, i skipped straight to the data. not knowing what the usual variation is, i shouldnt make a guess, but it does look very fishy. drizzle? in a place that holds the world record for wind speed?

Something to keep track of to see if that's just an anomaly.

Arctic sea ice extent has remained right on track with the 2007 record low, but the recovery has continued.

We get most of our cold weather from Arctic winds and it is frigid here and has been for the past month or so.  (-27c to -32c not including the windchill factor).  We are right on track with the Farmers Almanac and our climate has not been affected to date in Manitoba, Canada.  Weather patterns are another thing though as we have record amounts of snow already here.  Climate is what is expected and weather is what you get!

We are more than 25ppm Co2 over the danger line for Global Warming so I don't doubt that the seemingly unpredictable and strange weather and ice patterns are to do more with Global Warming than natural patterns or trends.

Holy cow.  If our temperatures got that low, I don't think I'd ever go outside!

I've been here all my life and I am still not used to it!  I live in a place they call "Winterpeg" (Winnipeg) and we have 2 seasons Winter and Construction.

It's difficult to convince skeptics here that Global Warming is real that's for sure!  The week before Christmas it dropped to -47c here with the windchill almost every day...it made for some interesting Christmas shopping especially since I refuse to ever idle or "warm up" the car for more than 60 seconds.

PUREShop I left Winnipeg last summer for the warmer climes of southern Ontario. It's now -4 C here.  Sorry but I was chucking to myself at your -31C this morning.

It's going to take considerable warming before Winnipeg notices any change in winter temps but there will be much more snow.

I also originate from Winterpeg but am now 115 km East of Winnipeg and enjoy the same weather but better scenery.  At least we have a dry cold. I found +4C with humidity in England worse than -30 C in Winnipeg. 

Good to know....won't try moving to England to get away then!  Yes, we have definitely noticed more snow earlier this year.  I watched it fall all day long today.  The increase in snow could very well be our first taste at climate change.

Thanks Gwens....we have relatives who have also seeked refuge in Ontario and they also find our weather here chuckle worthy :)  I must say I still have trouble laughing at it!

Something we observe about Lake Huron ice cover, we will see ice cover reduce in its extent and consolidate around Grand Bend and Ipperwash. At that time the whole of the southern quarter of the lake is solidly covered, but the northern end may have large areas clear of ice, because the wind from the north has blown the ice to the south, and even piled it up 6 to 8 metres along the shore.

With the criteria being that area that has a given percentage cover, what was covered yesterday can be bare today with no reduction in ice. It can be a non-thermal event.

Well now Dana I do believe I see palm trees in the background of your photo.

Haha not palms, but regular trees like oaks and ashes and such.  Palm trees are more of a southern California thing.

It rarely gets below 0 deg C around here though.  That's more than cold enough for me!

gosh thanks canadians all, thats made me feel much better about our paltry week at -2C!

(but yes whiteshell, a damp cold, gets into your bones).

Just when you think it can't get any worse, this came up on the internet.

well, its our second week of - temps here, while the scientists at rothera are in their shorts basking in a balmy +5C chiz.

Oh my word!  I honestly cannot even imagine temperatures that cold.  It's so funny...I'm in the San Francisco Bay Area and it's been cold for around here...with lows in the 40's F or 8 C.

No wonder one of the NHL announcers couldn't leave Saskatchewan the other day!

the yearly review is in.

"December's week-long pause in expansion of the ice cover appears to have been caused, at least in part, by an anomalous atmospheric pressure pattern. High pressure over Alaska and the European Arctic, coupled with unusually low pressure east of Greenland and over eastern Siberia, brought warm southerly winds over much of the Arctic Ocean. The southerly winds helped keep the ice edge from expanding southward. In addition, warm sea surface temperatures, at least in the Barents Sea, inhibited ice formation."

Aha well that answers my question.  Thanks gerda.

...i'm a sea ice cheerleader.....how sad....

so gcnp had the answer. north america got the arctic weather for a fortnight.

Believe in three things:  the Copernican principle, the principle of parsimony, and on classical scales, conservation of mass/momentum. 

If arctic air moves south, warmer air from somewhere else has to replace it. 

looks like it happened again. sea ice growth stalled while we had blizzards.

january roundup just in.

"As is typical during mid-winter, sea ice extent increased overall in January; maximum monthly extent is expected in March. However, January ice extent remained well below normal compared to the long-term record. Ice extent averaged for January 2009 is the sixth lowest January in the satellite record. Also of note is that from January 15 to 26, ice extent saw essentially no increase; an unusual wind pattern appears to have been the cause."

Back on topic: Sunday's L.A. Times has a front page article titled, "Under ice, a threat bubbles: Methane pockets locked in the Arctic could change Earth's climate."

The reporter is Margot Roosevelt, reporting from the Bering Land Bridge National Preserve.  It's not a bad piece, and should serve to educate a lot of people.